The new issue of Vanity Fair gives the mayor of New York, Rudolph Giuliani, the kind of publicity he could do without in the middle of his reelection campaign. But the mayor's record is so strong, it's doubtful that allegations of cheating on his wife will do him much harm. I'll make a bolder prediction: Giuliani, who has committed a slew of political "sins," will be a major candidate for the nation's highest office within the next two elections.
An American Pericles?
Why? Writer Richard Geib talks about "the man of Destiny impressing his will upon the wax of history." "Man of Destiny" is not often heard these days, but it beautifully describes Giuliani. Like a modern Pericles, he has revitalized America's leading city, a place widely written off as ungovernable.
Giuliani's style of leadership isn't pretty, but it's brutally effective. He whacks away at a problem (or a rival) until he obliterates it. What Giuliani has done in his first term as mayor is literally the stuff of legend. The record-breaking drop in crime and the nation's largest workfare program are only the highlights of a more sweeping panorama. It's the whole picture that counts, of a city lurching toward Apocalypse, beyond the rule of law or reason. But just in time a man of iron determination arrives and saves the day.
Not that Giuliani's achievements are his work alone. Churchill didn't singlehandedly save Britain during the Blitz, and FDR didn't rescue America from the Depression. But both men marshaled the forces that did. That earned them the right to be known as their nation's protectors. Similarly, Giuliani everyday is earning the right to be known as New York's savior.
Meanwhile, Giuliani's national reputation is growing. If the positive press keeps building (current rumors notwithstanding), more and more Americans will come to see him as that rarest of creatures -- a politician who promises great things, and delivers. If Giuliani pulls a few more rabbits out of his hat, his popularity will soar above the Empire State Building. Besides, what does it really take to be a serious presidential contender these days? Can anyone recall what Bill Clinton did as governor of Arkansas that qualified him for the White House?
A Republican? Does it matter?
Giuliani has not publicly disclosed presidential plans. But burning ambition and boundless self-confidence are his hallmarks. His confidence is shown in his independence. Giuliani marches to his own drummer. He angered many Republicans when he endorsed then-Governor Mario Cuomo in his reelection run against George Pataki. The received wisdom is that Giuliani has no future in the party because of his heresy, as well as some of his liberal stances. We'll see. Giuliani has done certain things so well, he may not even need the GOP anymore. But if he does, let's remember that success has a way of changing friends-turned-enemies back into friends again.
Julius Caesar turned away from his peers in the Roman Senate and built an independent power base. Giuliani in his own way has said, "I am above any party." History may prove him right.
In many ways, he is what Ross Perot wanted to be seen as: his own man, beholden to no one, with a genius for "getting under the hood and fixing things." Giuliani's critics say his non partisanship shows that he has no core values. Let's hope that actions and results still count for something: Giuliani has done more than anyone to recast America's Sodom and Gomorrah, choking on its left-wing excesses, in a conservative mold, where respect for law and order and the work ethic are now paramount. Giuliani has done so well at translating conservative principles into reality, he appeals to voters across the board. If he continues to transcend partisan lines, he may become one of the few politicians who can spearhead a major third party.
Scientists can study a meteor far off in the sky and guess where it will strike. But until it hits, there's no sure way of knowing. It's the same with history. Biographies of Caesar recount predictions made early in his career that he would rule Rome. But until he defeated Pompey, who could have said for sure?
At destiny's door
The main evidence that Giuliani is a "man of Destiny" is the trajectory of his career. Great men emerge at some point, they step forward from the crowd. Rarely is their success a straight path to the top. Spectacular victories, alternating with major setbacks, are the rule.
Giuliani first gained fame as New York's mob-busting Federal prosecutor. What's not as well known is that before becoming U.S. attorney, he was the third-highest official in Ronald Reagan's Justice Department. A less-imaginative public servant might view that position as the pinnacle of one's career, perhaps even a steppingstone to attorney general. But Giuliani took a "demotion" and became U.S. attorney. Soon he was the most famous prosecutor in the nation.
When he lost his first mayoral race against David Dinkins in 1989, many people dismissed him as a political amateur. But he fought his way back to victory in the rematch, becoming the first Republican in a generation to take City Hall.
History is largely drama. Great men are never perfect, but they fit their role better than anyone else on stage at the time. Giuliani is not a gifted speaker and he doesn't project warmth like FDR or Reagan. But like them, he casts a dominant shadow. He is the Humphrey Bogart of politics -- not a charmer like Clark Gable or Cary Grant, but a tower of strength who can be counted on in a crisis.
The response to him in New York -- where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans five to one -- is stunning. The latest mayoral poll has him beating his Democratic challenger by 23 points. The rumors about Giuliani's marital problems have yet to run their course, but I doubt they'll do much to shatter his aura of political invincibility, of "inevitability." After this November, watch his national political star rise.
Joe Diamond is the executive director of ParoleWatch. |
